The one big unknown that remains after MotoGP testing as 2026 season looms

As the 2026 pre-season comes to a close following last weekend’s Buriram test, Aprilia appears to have picked up where it left off when Marco Bezzecchi led Raul Fernandez home for a 1-2 at the Valencia Grand Prix in November.

In a year of complete regulatory stability, as the 1000cc engine formula enters its final season, there is expected to be a narrowing of Ducati’s advantage to its most slender margin since it assumed control as the leading manufacturer in MotoGP at the end of 2021.

Aprilia certainly had the more stable season of the two brands last year, as it hit the ground with a solid foundation and built into a regular victory contender from the midway point. Ducati cleaned up still, but its GP25 was only really ever favoured by runaway world champion Marc Marquez, while the GP24 evidently became long in the tooth at the point later in the campaign when Aprilia properly started to show its teeth.

With just five days of pre-season testing on the books ahead of this weekend’s Thai Grand Prix opener, the status quo from 2025 looks intact: Ducati starts the year still just in front, with Aprilia giving chase.

Aprilia ended the Buriram test fastest outright, after Marco Bezzecchi fired in a 1m28.668s in the closing stages of day two to dip underneath the lap record. Track conditions were at their best, but the test in Thailand offered an intriguing bookmark to where it came from this time last year.

While it ended the 2025 Thai Grand Prix with a brace of top five performances, it comes into the 2026 edition with a legitimate shot at victory.

Aprilia had a relatively straightforward Buriram test. It didn’t have anything huge to try, and was reconfirming what looked to already be working at the Sepang test. Ducati still had a lot of work to do to finalise its aero package for each of its riders, though that job also looks to have been completed.

On the final day, Aprilia came away with the best long run, with Ai Ogura of Trackhouse achieving an average of 1m30.101s over 12 laps. Bezzecchi was one of only a few to complete a run much closer to full race distance, tallying 20 laps at an average of 1m30.454s.

That is just shy of the pace at which Marc Marquez won last year’s sprint race in Thailand, where the seven-time champion averaged 1m30.357s over 12 laps. It was considerably quicker than the best pace in the grand prix, though Marquez ran well below what he could achieve as he tried to rectify a tyre pressure issue.

Still, Aprilia can take great encouragement from the fact that it hasn’t lost any of the strong form it ended 2025 with.

“Scary” form setting Ducati and Aprilia apart from the rest

KTM’s Pedro Acosta quipped on Sunday after the Buriram test that the pace Ducati and Aprilia currently have at the Thai venue is “scary”. Indeed, the top five riders in terms of long-running pace last Sunday all came from one of those two manufacturers.

Now testing is over, we’ve very much entered the finger-pointing stage of the pre-season, where nobody wants to take any kind of responsibility for where they truly sit in the competitive order.

“Of course, Aprilia, especially with Marco, but also [Jorge] Martin with only one test, and also [Ai] Ogura, they did a step,” Marc Marquez said. “Already last year, Marco finished the second half of the season super-fast. So, he will be a title contender from the beginning.

Alex Marquez, who was fastest on day one of the Buriram tests, having topped the Sepang one outright, echoed these thoughts: “We have to be realistic: the first races will not be like last year that all the Ducatis were really on top and the difference compared to the other manufacturers was so big.”

However, Bezzecchi countered, when asked if he now has a package he can fight for the title with: “I don’t know. Of course, I would love to. My main target right now is to start in a better way than last year, because the first half of last season was a bit up and down. So, my target is to be more consistent from the beginning. Hopefully, I can fight for good races, good results, but my main target right now is to start in a better way. And then, of course, I’m open to changing my target during the season.”

So far, then, both pre-season favourites are keeping their cards close to their chests. But make no mistake: Aprilia and Ducati are the favourites. Aprilia, at least for now, looks like it can rely on Ai Ogura and Raul Fernandez more in the early rounds of this season, while Jorge Martin is not as far away from the frontrunners as someone with just two days of riding ought to be.

2026 Buriram MotoGP test - top 10 race simulations

The GP26 Ducati package is also one that, in general, looks to be more consistent than its predecessor. Pecco Bagnaia has spent much of this winter with a smile permanently etched into his face, as he responds to questions about his new bike in the same way a newbie baker gushes over their first successful sourdough loaf.

Bagnaia’s form over the pre-season and his feedback was always going to be pivotal in understanding just where Ducati is coming into the new year. After testing, it does look like it holds a small advantage over Aprilia.

A key step seems to be with the ride height device, which Bagnaia revealed during testing is really helping the bike under braking. It was here with the GP25 that was largely the reason for the double world champion’s struggles.

Alex Marquez sounded somewhat surprised Bagnaia said what he did about the new ride height device, in a tone that suggests he perhaps alluded to more than he should have: “He said that? Yeah, we have something, but I will not say how I feel…”

Missing Ducati data from testing the key question mark

Ducati’s testing at Buriram wasn’t smooth. Alex Marquez had a crash on the final day during his race sim, while Bagnaia had a small technical issue during his full-distance one. Reigning champion Marc Marquez was below fitness due to a stomach bug, which contributed to him crashing three times across two days.

The third one was particularly costly, as it came seven laps into his race simulation. To that point, his average was around the 1m29.9s mark. If we consider Bagnaia averaged 1m30.2s and Alex Marquez 1m30.444s, the 33-year-old would have likely been in the Bezzecchi ballpark had he got above 20 laps.

After Sepang, Marquez was genuinely a few tenths adrift of Alex Marquez and Bagnaia after sprint simulations. For now, that can still be chalked up to his shoulder not being at 100% fitness.

He noted on Saturday at Buriram that he noticed a step forward with this, in response to questions about why his new deal with Ducati had been delayed. At this stage, we don’t really know where Marquez is physically coming into the Thai Grand Prix.

However, he cut a very positive figure after Sunday’s running.

“I’m very, very happy because the feeling with the bike was good all morning, and I was riding in a good way,” he said. “All three crashes I had this weekend were a lack of concentration…I’m 100% convinced and clear on what I need now and how we will start [with the bike].”

It wasn’t really until the first race of last year that we gained a true understanding of the potential Marquez was capable of on the Ducati. Friday practice this week will offer a clearer idea, but there is certainly a confidence around him at this stage that should not be ignored.

How the rest of the field are stacking up

Coming into the Thai Grand Prix, it’s not unfair to suggest that the pecking order looks very much like Ducati edging ahead of Aprilia, with a small gap to a tight third-place scrap between KTM and Honda, with Yamaha miles off the pace.

KTM definitely looks in better shape than it was at the start of last season, largely because its parent company has not spent this winter navigating a major financial crisis.

The Austrian manufacturer delivered a lot of major new items, such as chassis and aero updates, to the pre-season, which are keeping KTM in the conversation for more regular podium challenges from the off.

Pedro Acosta is clearly the rider still making the difference, with Maverick Vinales quite disappointingly further away than he was at the same stage last year. Brad Binder feels like he made a set-up breakthrough on the final day of the Buriram test, which only came after an underwhelming race run. Enea Bastianini has already ruled himself out of being a top five contender in Thailand.

One key issue with the KTM last year was tyre preservation. Acosta noted that his rubber was still in good shape 20-plus laps into a long run at the Buriram test. His pace was ok, but not enough to win right now, and even he acknowledged that.

“If it’s [the bike] much, much better, we should [be able to] fight for the win. It’s better. It’s clear there are two brands that are quite outstanding,” he said.

Honda is right with KTM in terms of race pace at the Buriram test, though Joan Mir admitted that the RC213V has been battling a lack of grip. Partly, he thinks this is down to the stiffer tyre carcass Michelin uses at tracks like Buriram and Red Bull Ring. However, it’s a tyre in the past that Honda has been able to be competitive on.

The Honda “isn’t a super competitive package yet”, Mir said, and feels it needs a grip “revolution” to take the next step it has been looking for. It is, at least, a heck of a lot more competitive than the Yamaha V4 is at this stage.

The new Yamaha, while proving more reliable at the Buriram test than it was at Sepang, remains well down on top speed, while it lacks grip and turning. Fabio Quartararo offered a grim assessment of the season ahead, noting that the bike is “months” away from being truly ready to race.

Jack Miller was a bit more positive about it, noting that it’s beginning to handle more like the inline-four Yamaha was famed for. That said, Miller has often cut himself out as something of a company man over his career. And in a contract year where he is not going to be vying for a major seat elsewhere, there is a sense of not really having any choice but to be positive.