Is Nicolo Bulega right about Australian WorldSBK threat theory?

Nicolo Bulega was fastest by almost half-a-second on the combined times at the end of Friday at the Australian World Superbike round, so can it really be true that he has legitimate rivals at Phillip Island?

Bulega claimed after FP2 that he has to keep an eye on multiple riders in the battle for the win, namely the two Bimota riders – Axel Bassani and Alex Lowes – and Marc VDS Ducati’s Sam Lowes.

Certainly, all three riders had solid days at Phillip Island, all of them ending up in the top-five on the combined times even with crashes for the two Lowes brothers.

Can they really hold a candle to Bulega, though?

Not to burst anyone’s bubble, but a look at the chronological analysis from FP2 paints a picture more similar to the claims made by both Lowes brothers, who both felt after Friday practice that Bulega had a significant advantage at Phillip Island.

Looking at the chronological sheet is never a perfect way to understand what people’s relative pace is because you don’t know the context of each lap time, plus WorldSBK does not provide tyre information – either compound or age – so it’s a bit of an estimation.

Sam Lowes said after the session that all his good laps were done in the 1m29s, suggesting the ones in the 1m30s had mistakes somewhere in them. Those mistakes, plus Lowes’ crash with around 20 minutes to go in the session, meant that he only registered seven laps in the 1m29s in FP2, the best being a 1m29.558s (also his last lap before crashing) and his worst a 1m29.952s.

Alex Lowes, on the other hand, said afterwards that he spent much of his time running on a sub-optimal set-up as he tried to understand what he didn’t like about a change he’d made as well as to just get a long run completed, and that a lot of his running was done in traffic.

Nonetheless, the Bimota rider registered 17 laps in the 1m29s or 1m30s, the best being a 1m29.354s – his second lap of FP2 – and his worst a 1m30.743s, which was his first timed lap of the session.

Axel Bassani, on the other hand, ran 20 representative laps in the session, all of them in the 1:29s. The Italian’s best effort was a 1m29.468s, his worst a 1m29.960s.

On average, Sam Lowes’ pace was the best, the British rider averaging a 1m29.687s from his seven 1m29s laps. Alex Lowes’ average lap time was the worst at a 1m30.029s, while Bassani’s slotted in between the two brothers at a 1m29.760s.

Given the quantity of laps Bassani did compared to Sam Lowes, though, it’s probably fair that he’s given the nod as the best performing of the three in FP2.

His team-mate, Alex Lowes, of course, is counting on set-up improvements to close some of the quarter-second he misses compared to Bassani, as well as potentially more favourable traffic conditions in a race scenario compared to practice.

But how do they all compare to Bulega?

The Italian did two reasonably long runs in FP2. The first lasted eight laps, and all but one were representative as he threw a 1m30.7s in there compared to the rest being low-1m29s. Of those 1m29s, his best was a 1m29.131s, his worst a 1m29.466s.

The second run was eight-laps-long, all of them in 1m29s. The best this time was a 1m29.101s, his best lap of the session, and his worst was a 1m29.360s, the first lap of the run.

The average lap time for the first run was a 1m29.270s for Bulega, while the second run average was a 1m29.202s. Combined, the two runs give an average of a 1m29.234s, far faster than any of the three riders Bulega suggested could challenge him in this weekend’s races.

Even including the rogue 1m30.7s from the first run his average comes to a 1m29.3s.

Bulega’s advantage in average pace over Sam Lowes, whose average was the best of the three supposed challengers, is 0.453 seconds. Over a 22-lap race, that projects a winning margin of 9.966 seconds.

There is a reason points are awarded at the end of the race, not at the end of a practice, but it is clear that Bulega has a substantial advantage over the field this weekend, not only in one-lap speed but long run pace as well, his affinity with Phillip Island combining with the belief he gained in the past two seasons that he – in the absence of Toprak Razgatlioglu – is the sole rider who can take full control of the World Superbike Championship.