Bold predictions for the most unpredictable F1 season in years

A brave new era is about to begin as Formula 1 motors into the unknown.

Amid plenty of intrigue and mystery heading into a new season of F1 featuring new rules, a new generation of cars, and a new team, what better time to speculate about what will happen?

F1 2026 is set to be the most unpredictable season in years and promises to be thrilling, with huge question marks surrounding the competitive order after pre-season testing only provided a glimpse of what to expect.

Here’s what our writers think will happen this year in F1…

George Russell will become F1 world champion

Not a particularly bold prediction, I’ll admit, given all the hearsay and conjecture over the winter has pointed towards Mercedes being crowned world champions in F1 2026.

The once-dominant Mercedes’ crown slipped in 2022 as a new regulation cycle began, leading to four seasons of frustration in the ground-effect era. F1’s rules reset provides Mercedes with a crucial chance to return to winning ways, and the buzz surrounding the run-up to the new campaign suggests the Silver Arrows will be the team to beat.

Already branded as the pre-season favourite, George Russell is ready to fight for the world championship. While overshadowed by a thrilling three-way title battle that went down to the wire, Russell was one of the standout performers last year, claiming two victories on his way to placing fourth in the drivers’ standings.

Russell has emerged from Lewis Hamilton’s shadow and proved he is team leader material. Having maximised everything from last year’s inconsistent Mercedes, there is no reason why the 28-year-old Briton can’t realise his dream, provided the German manufacturer gives him a championship-worthy contender.

Russell has beaten Hamilton over the course of an F1 season, and has, at times, bested the likes of Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri in wheel-to-wheel combat. He demonstrated in 2025 that he has the consistency needed to become a world champion, brushing aside his highly-rated rookie teammate Kimi Antonelli in the process. He is now ready to fight for top honours in F1.

Lewis Larkam

Racing Bulls will end the season top of the midfield

While the top four teams look to be locked in, even if their position within that pecking order remains a mystery, the midfield fight this season offers some intriguing plot lines. Last year's midfield leaders Williams are off to an underwhelming start, as it apparently battles weight issues with its new car following production delays in the pre-season.

Holding onto that fifth spot, then, seems like a steep task for the Grove-based outfit right now. Aston Martin's expected march towards the front looks less likely than winning the lottery now, while Audi and Cadillac's new projects will need a lot of time to get moving in the right direction.

Alpine and Racing Bulls seem poised to be the main contenders for fifth spot, but the latter may have an edge. The Red Bull-Ford engine partnership is already off to a promising start, and reliability above all is going to be a key factor in 2026, particularly early into the new rules cycle.

Performing well and reliably, Racing Bulls also seem to be matching that with a solid package. Liam Lawson needs to step up in a big way to help fulfil that, particularly after Isack Hadjar's impressive rookie season. Arvid Lindblad is an unknown quantity right now, but a solid pre-season in a car that has proven to be generally a bit more tameable in recent years could lead him to decent results early on.

Lewis Duncan

Cadillac will score points before Aston Martin

Just a few months ago this would have been a much bolder prediction. But after a disastrous two weeks of testing in Bahrain for Aston Martin, not too many heads would be turned if newcomers Cadillac was able to get points on the board before the previously much hyped Aston Martin.

Cadillac and Aston Martin were almost on opposite ends of the spectrum when it came to 2026 expectations at the start of the year.

With millions of dollars worth of investment and the blockbuster signing of design legend Adrian Newey, the belief that Aston Martin could at least be a very competitive force that could potentially break into the top four was not considered unrealistic.

Meanwhile Cadillac’s expectations were on the floor -  it would have been commended for even getting its car on the grid. The reality is the American team could walk away from testing with its head held high. The initial pace while not super quick certainly isn’t worryingly slow. The same cannot be said for Aston Martin and its new partnership with Honda.

Rumours had even been swirling that it intends on retiring from the Australian Grand Prix after a few laps. While we understand this is not the case, the team put in the least amount of laps across Bahrain testing and one of its drivers claimed it is four seconds off the pace. It’s pretty clear that Aston Martin is in for a rough start to 2026. Cadillac however has two hugely experienced drivers and what looks to be a reliable Ferrari-powered car. 

Points within the first few rounds certainly aren't impossible. 

Ian Mangan

Fernando Alonso will quit F1 for good

This could be the last season we see Fernando Alonso grace the F1 grid.

One of F1’s all-time greats, two-time world champion Alonso turns 45 this summer and is nearing the end of his current contract, which expires at the end of the 2026 season.

Alonso has already admitted to thinking about leaving F1 and those thoughts may ramp up if Aston Martin’s partnership with Honda really does turn out to be as doomed as it appears.

The Spaniard has pinned his hopes of winning an elusive third world title on Aston Martin and the promise of Honda’s potential in a car designed by the great Newey, but the team is heading into 2026 in horrible shape after a nightmare pre-season.

Aston Martin and Honda are in trouble and it will take time to fix. That is something Alonso, who despite still operating at an incredibly high level, doesn’t have on his side. One imagines he will become increasingly frustrated if Honda cannot sort out its reliability and performance woes for the second time in his career.

A strikingly similar situation faced Alonso a decade ago, and after years of struggling at the back of the F1 grid in a disastrous second stint at McLaren, he walked away. Alonso is about to become a father for the first time and his priorities understandably may shift, especially if Aston Martin continues to underperform.

If Aston Martin fails to deliver on its promise, leaving Alonso no closer to winning a grand prix for the first time since 2013, he may well decide he has had enough and call it quits. This time, it would surely be for good.

It would be a sad way for Alonso to end his legendary F1 career, which risks being remembered for near-misses and being in the right place at the wrong time.

Lewis Larkam

Gabriel Bortoleto will score a podium for Audi

Audi's step into F1 as a manufacturer entry is an exciting prospect for the championship, even if it is not likely to be fighting for any championships in the next few years.

Very much a foundational year, anything is possible in a new regulations cycle, particularly one that is proving to be quite complex. More so than ever, being in the right place at the right time, with a bit of luck on your side and a strategy working in your favour, is likely to delivery some big results on some odd days this season.

Audi has already shown itself to ready to throw major new items at its car, following its radical sidepod switch between Barcelona's shakedown and the Bahrain test. While there were certainly teething issues, the Audi project isn't exactly splashing around without a direction in the same way Aston Martin is.

Gabriel Bortoleto had a quiet but solid rookie campaign. When he scored, he scored well, taking a best of sixth in Hungary. With a year of experience under his belt, but crucially not enough to have cemented any bad habits in the old cars, he is the kind of driver who could find adapting to the new machinery a bit of a faster process. 

Lewis Duncan

Max Verstappen will make blockbuster move to Mercedes…or retire

Despite arguably being the most important figure in the sport right now, Verstappen’s future in F1 hangs in the balance.

At the age of just 28, he has 4 World Championships under his belt and has already broken numerous records. Verstappen has nothing left to prove and he has been very vocal about how much longer he sees his F1 career lasting. His criticism of the latest regulation change has also been scathing to say the least. The question isn’t how long does Verstappen want to keep racing, it’s where he wants to keep racing.

He already made his GT3 debut last year and has expressed interest in racing in Les Mans, but ultimately his decision will come down to the package his Red Bull team has brought this year. Right now Red Bull looks competitive but it certainly isn't being earmarked as the quickest. Mercedes however is currently the favourites for the championship. 

Yes a lot can change in a year, we saw that as recently as the 2025 season where Verstappen ended up fighting for his fifth title right down to the last race. However if Verstappen is stuck fighting for P4 or P5 every weekend he will simply do one of two things, up and leave the sport altogether, or finally relent to Toto Wolff’s efforts to sign him to Mercedes.

If Mercedes has built the car which everyone believes is the one to beat - a switch to the team is almost inevitable. Mercedes knows how to win, so does Verstappen and it could be the combination that could see them dominate the sport for the next few years.

Ian Mangan