Is table-topping McLaren really fastest after early promise at F1 Japanese GP?

McLaren may have outpaced Formula 1 benchmark Mercedes to top the timesheet in Friday practice at the Japanese Grand Prix, but that doesn’t tell the full story. 

Oscar Piastri put his McLaren at the top of the leaderboard in second practice, having edged ahead of the lead Mercedes of Kimi Antonelli by just 0.092 seconds. Antonelli’s team-mate and early championship leader George Russell was third-quickest, 0.205s further back. 

Russell quickly admitted his surprise at McLaren’s impressive one-lap pace, which has left Mercedes claiming the reigning world champions could be in the fight for pole position in Japan. 

But there is a feeling Mercedes is playing a game of smoke and mirrors and will still have plenty in hand when it comes down to qualifying on Saturday. Even McLaren was left sceptical and expects the competitive picture to ultimately end up the same as at the opening two events in Australia and China. 

It is worth noting the caveat that Piastri did also set the pace in second practice at his home race in Melbourne, which Mercedes went on to dominate in both qualifying and the grand prix itself - something McLaren was quick to point out. 

“Oscar finished P1, which I think is always nice to see, but similar to pace in Australia on Friday and I think the pecking order generally looks pretty much the same in broad terms,” McLaren racing director Randy Singh said. 

In its press release, McLaren noted that “despite Oscar topping the timesheets in FP2, the underlying pictures appear to have remained the same as previous races. 

“Since the opening double-header, the team has worked hard to understand how to extract performance from the 2026 regulation power units, and some progress has been made in this area," the team added. 

“However, with no upgrades to the car this weekend, our performance in FP2 is likely to be an outlier over the weekend, as it’s expected that Mercedes and Ferrari will resume their positions as the first and second fastest teams as we head into competitive running.”

Indeed, Mercedes once again boasted the strongest race-simulation runs on Friday. Piastri was on average 0.25s slower than Antonelli and 0.5s behind Russell, even when taking into account he ended up in traffic on his long run. 

While Mercedes is likely holding something back when it comes to outright one-lap performance, and McLaren is expected to be behind the Silver Arrows over a race distance as well, there is genuine optimism the Woking outfit might be the second-best team in Japan.

McLaren should at least find itself in the fight with Ferrari for the final spot on the podium. That is something the team is yet to achieve so far this year, having seen both its cars fail to start in China and Lando Norris finishing a distant fifth in the season-opener in Australia. 

What’s happened to Ferrari’s pace? 

Ferrari had a much trickier day than its main rivals, and a less smooth start to the weekend as it enjoyed at the previous two rounds, where the Maranello outfit was comfortably the second-fastest team behind Mercedes. 

That was not the case on Friday in Japan, with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton well off the pace as they took fifth and sixth in FP1 and FP2. Both drivers were seen struggling to keep their cars on track at times as they suffered regular high-speed snaps and lacked grip. 

Hamilton was heard complaining about the balance of his SF-26 and worryingly reported over team radio at one point that he was “slow because I've got no confidence in the car".

After FP2, the seven-time world champion suggested his troubles were likely set-up related. Despite conceding Ferrari is “just not quick enough”, Hamilton did say there are clear improvements to be made. 

“We’ve just got to work hard overnight to try and figure out how we can set the car up better,” Hamilton explained. “Ultimately, there’s a lot of time on the straights - it’s four-tenths into Turn 1 at the moment compared to the McLaren.

“So deployment is part of it, so I’m sure we can do a better job in improving on that. And then I think there’s more performance in the car to extract if we can get the setup right.”

Ferrari sporting director Diego loverno added: “The gap is more or less where we expected it to be, also quite in line with the first two races, especially in the short runs. We have to improve."

Red Bull stuck in midfield with ‘big problems’ 

Things look more concerning down at Red Bull, with the former world champions enduring a rough start to the weekend in Japan and arguably ending Friday as the biggest loser. 

Max Verstappen was 10th-fastest and more than a second off the pace, while team-mate Isack Hadjar finished well down the order in 15th. As well as McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari, Red Bull was also slower than Audi, Williams and Haas over one lap. The team’s race simulations were nothing to write home about either. 

Red Bull struggled to dial in the balance of its RB22 challenger. Set-up changes to combat understeer resulted in oversteer, leaving Verstappen frustrated with the performance and handling of his car throughout Friday’s action. 

The four-time world champion declared Red Bull has “big problems” with its car and painted a pretty bleak picture for the rest of the weekend by warning there is “no easy fix” in sight. 

Red Bull will make changes in a bid to improve the situation ahead of final practice and qualifying, but Verstappen does not “expect miracles overnight”. 

"You just have to look at our relative position - it is not at the standard we set ourselves or the standard Max sets us," Red Bull’s chief engineer Paul Monaghan said. 

"I think we've identified a few things that are wrong and now it's a case of can we confirm it and understand it enough that we can influence it, cure it, correct it or whatever for tomorrow, and let's see how tomorrow goes. Today I would describe it as challenging.”

Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies alarmingly concluded his squad is “very far” from the frontrunners. The Milton Keynes outfit looks braced to have another weekend slugging it out in the midfield pack.